In May 2013, Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the FOMC, evoked the possible end the FED asset purchases program. The effects on financial conditions in emerging countries were immediate and quite large. In a NBER WP, Aizenman, Binici and Hutchinson (2014) showed that, in opposition to what could be expected, the effects were larger on emerging countries with stronger macro fundamentals (current accounts, reserves, external debt) than on fragile countries. Indeed they observe larger depreciation, larger drops in the stock market and a sharp increase in spreads. Some explanations are provided, including the fact that robust countries received larger inflows during the quantitative years, because of sound domestic financial markets, leading thus to a stronger adjustment afterwards.
Impact of tapering talks on EMEs
Laisser une réponse